CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 16/04 - 06Z THU 17/04 2003
ISSUED: 15/04 22:52Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN IBERIA AND PARTS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN, THE NORTHERN BALKANS

SYNOPSIS

AN UPPER HIGH IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTH SEA. NEAR THIS SYSTEM, THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND STABLE. AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ALGERIA, SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD.

DISCUSSION

...EXTERME EASTERN IBERIA, WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PRESENT WITHIN A LARGE, DECAYING PRECIPITATION SYSTEM OVER EXTREME EASTERN IBERIA AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN. AS THE WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO EASTWARD WHILE SLOWLY DECAYING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...BALKANS...
A THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DESTABILISATION THROUGH SOLAR HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN BALKANS. GIVEN SMALL INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

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